African Swine Fever ripples from China

The African Swine Fever outbreak which was first recorded last August is rampant in Asia with others fearing it is now a case of when it spreads to other parts of the world not if.

ASF is reducing Chinas pig herd at an alarming rate and with it comes a significant reduction in the demand for whey  (cheese makers valuable by product) a key component in piglets feeds.

Many predict a total reduction in the Chinese pork herd of 25% would be a good result and remember China is responsible for 50% of global pork production so a 25% reduction equates to 12.5% of world output.

Pig prices across the world are heading North as China seeks to replace its lost output. In addition Chinese beef imports have rocketed. In April China imported 130,000 tonnes up 75% compared to April 2018 figures and domestic Chinese beef prices are also heading North. There are now reports, due to reduced pork availability and increasing prices it is influencing Chinese farmers who have started to prematurely slaughter dairy cows for the beef market.

So worldwide demand for beef and other meats from China is on the increase and the likelihood is that for the remainder of 2019 the ASF outbreak in China is going to play a major role in the volatility of world meat prices and whey prices with one up and the other down.