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Dairy Industry News and Features

Our Weekly News Bulletin is available by email. To receive it please email info@ipmsltd.co.uk.

^{Note, all standard litre prices are those quoted by www.milkprices.com and are based on the following:

The liquid standard litre 4% bf, 3.3% protein, 30,000/ml Bactoscans, 200,000/ml SCC, 1 million litres a year on EODC but before seasonality, monthly profile payments, balancing, B price additions, capital retentions or annual incentive schemes. The manufacturing standard litre is to exactly the same specification with the exception of 4.2%bf and 3.4% protein.}

^{Remember this bulletin continues to be available free of charge and takes the team at Ian Potter Associates considerable time to produce. The only encouragement to keep producing it is a combination of enthusiasm, tag sales & enquiries from our readers.} ^{All views expressed in this bulletin are those of Ian Potter Associates and a shed load of dairy farmers. It is necessarily short and cannot deal with various issues that arise in any detail. As a result it must not be relied on as giving sufficient advice in any specific case. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the content but neither Ian Potter Associates nor Lydia Clare personally can accept any liability for any errors or omissions. Professional advice must always be taken before any decision is reached. For our privacy policy please click here.}

02/12/22

3ppl milk price drop for Freshways suppliers – from January 1st

This reduces suppliers liquid standard litre price to 47ppl and in its letter to producers it states a number of reasons for the drop including increase in volumes and a significant fall in cream income.

02/12/22

1.5ppl milk price drop for South Caernarfon Creameries suppliers – from 1st January

This reduces suppliers manufacturing standard litre price to 48.5ppl and based on a liquid standard litre to 46.83ppl

02/12/22

Futures trades continue to head South

The Stone X Milkprices.com Net UKMFE return to producers (allowing for haulage and processor margin) continues to head South with the latest posting from www.milkprices.com headlined as “another dreadful week.” This was with reference to the last week in November which recorded a total net return to a producer of only 33.28ppl a drop of 1.52ppl in a week. This comes only 9 weeks after the record high of 49.

02/12/22

Kite Consulting now part of AB Agri Group

John Allens baby Kite Consultancy and Advance Sourcing has been acquired by AB Agri which includes familiar names like Trident Feeds, KW Feeds, Frontier, ABN plus many others. Kite will continue to operate as a standalone basis providing independent advice to GB Dairy Farmers. It will be interesting to see how Kites Advance Sourcing and its feed recommendations/sourcing can maintain its independency given its new owners pedigree in that area.

25/11/22

Arla Stand on milk price until 2023

Arla will hold its member milk price until 1st January for both Conventional and Organic. Conventional Organic December Milk Price PPL PPL Manufacturing 52.24 57.02 Liquid 50.24 54.85 In todays press release Arla Foods AMBA board director Authur Fearnall commented “The outlook is negative, driven by the continued decline in commodity prices.

24/11/22

Cheese Processors with stocks are under pressure as Less = More

Ian has received a handful of emails plus one telephone call from readers who feel he should not have written his 11th November bulletin commentary “what goes up must come down.” One caller suggested he tones it down because he was fuelling price cuts which if Ian keeps quiet would be less than he suggested. Well Ian has thought about this and decided that the most irresponsible thing to do is keep quiet and to pretend that things are not that bad.

24/11/22

Arla lead the pack

Well in recent months/years the majority of GB milk buyers have tended to follow Arlas lead. Whilst Ian does not anticipate Arla dropping its 1st December member milk price, he equally doesn’t anticipate Arla to be totally irresponsible and put a final increase through. So, the short odds are for a stand on until 1st January. The days of following Arlas lead are limited if not over for many milk processors.

21/11/22

Record October GB milk production

AHDB Dairy estimates confirm Octobers GB farmgate milk output stands at 1.04 billion litres which sets a new record since records were collated in 1998. This has surprised most analysts including AHDB whose October production forecast was smashed by a tasty 40 million litres/1.3 million litres day equivalent to a 4% jump. Meanwhile mainland Europe milk production for September was up 0.

18/11/22

German value of milk drops to 40.55ppl based on a liquid standard litre

The independent IFE in Germany have calculated the average EU farmgate price of milk using recognised SMP and butter prices gathered across mainland Europe’s big three producers- Holland, Germany and France has reduced to 2,967 euros per tonne. Based on a UK liquid standard litre this converts to 40.55ppl and based on a liquid standard litre 42.44ppl

15/11/22

GDT up 2.4%

Todays fortnightly GDT Auction resulted in the all products index increasing by 2.4% to average US $3623 tonne. The quantity sold was almost identical to that sold 2 weeks ago at 28,980 (28,867) with the number of participating bidders increasing from 142 to 161 however actual successful bidders totalled 111 against 116 only two weeks earlier. Notable movements were WMP up 3.

11/11/22

What goes up must come down

That’s the title of the 1974 Soul Record by Tyrone Davis and it’s certainly the case with Milk Prices. The 1st November milk price increase from Arla and the 50p hold by the likes of Freshways have both snookered most milk buyers however the pressure for 1st January and beyond farmgate milk prices drops are now looking painful and brutal. By brutal I mean in the drops will likely come monthly and in multiple pence per litre, unless a miracle occurs, because markets are going south at a pace and most processors will have no alternative but to pull back on farmgate milk prices asap.

11/11/22

Don’t shoot the messenger it’s a wake up call.

Back on the 12th August this bulletin stated: In short, its 12 o’clock for many dairy farmers and pointing their prayer mats towards Leeds and Denmark praying these prices hold as well as not trying to ramp up production is their best game plan. This was reference 1st September 48 to 50p declared price rises and 3 months later its proving to be the case! Your prayers were answered but don’t rule out Arla could be a front runner in price reductions however the smart money must surely be on Arla holding until at least 1st January.