Milk price outlook is not good

All eyes are now focussed on Muller this weekend and whether it confirms any price movement from November 1^st. 

Ian’s moles suggest a Muller price cut is very much on the cards, which is not what Muller or any dairy farmers will want to hear.  Given Muller’s 1^st October liquid standard litre price is 29.5ppl and Arla’s is 31.21ppl the gap is now an unexplainable 1.71ppl.  Also note in today’s announcement Arla state “The outlook for milk price for the coming months remains stable”, indicating the possibility of stand on or close to stand on prices depending on market movements in the next month.

Muller farmers will be praying for a November stand on but it’s looking challenging and if Muller drop the dam will burst as price cuts rain in for November and December. 

Anything Ian writes will not change the fundamentals, so don’t shoot the messenger. 

GDT prices continue to drop, futures have been falling for the past 5 consecutive weeks, UK production is up, German production +2.8% and imports of cheese from Ireland in 2018 are at eye-watering record levels.  Arla’s increase is great news but stand on prices for November should not be criticised.